Saturday, November 7, 2009

Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers

Antonio Silva vs Fabricio Werdum
(265 lbs/120 kg)
Antonio Silva


+Good striker, and surprising light on his
feet for such a large man
+Decent ground game
+Good size advantage (6′5″, 265 lbs)

-Not a good wrestler
-Can be inaggressive at times
-Not a one hit KO artist

Fabricio Werdum


+Highly decorated Jiu Jitsu black belt and has won gold in ADCC
+Judo knowledge

-Sub par wrestler
-Very average striker
-Not the best ground and pound

Werdum will pose a severe danger to Silva if he gets it to the ground, but Werdum is not a strong wrestler and does not have explosive shot
s, and he has had trouble putting people on the mat, thinking particularly the Arlovski fight.
Silva isn’t the most aggressive fighter on the planet, but he may find that an advantage, as he can stay outside of Werdum’s range, and pick him apart using his reach.
Despite his impressive TKO percentage, I would be surprised if Silva KO’d Werdum.
Leaning towards Silva by unanimous decision. Werdum is favorite at 1.65, while Silva is at 2.25, so of course I’ll choose Silva.
Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller
(185 lbs/84 kg)

Jake Shields

United States

+Great wrestler
+Excellent grappler, Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Good cardio

-Not a good striker
-Ground and pound could be better

Jason Miller

United States
+Good grappler
+Almost unsubmittable
+Decent striker
+Good cardio

-Questionable wrestling
-Not a KO artist

Shields will very likely outwrestle Miller and keep him on the mat, but when Jacaré couldn’t submit Mayhem, it’s hard to see anyone doing so. Nonetheless, Shields is a very prolific wrestler, moreso than Jacaré, so he will definitely be pleased with how long Miller was kept on the ground in that fight.
Miller may have an advantage standing, but looking at Miller’s low KO rates it’s hard to see him putting Shields away before the shot.
Shields by unanimous decision, a pretty boring fight, I’d guess. Shields is at 1.34, while Miller is at 3.35, but I’ll bet on Shields.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
(205 lbs/93 kg)
Gegard Mousasi


+High quality boxer/kickboxer—former Dutch amateur boxing champ
+Very good ground game with a dangerous guard
+Very good ground and pound
+Very good training partners
+Highly strategic

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou


+Good kickboxer
+Explosive KO power
+Judo background
+Strength and athleticism

-Bad cardio
-Poor heart
-No submissions and never looked good grappling

Thierry has an advantage in sheer power and perhaps a little strength and athleticism, but has severe cardio issues and a poor ground game, while the Armenian has no real weaknesses. I would also say that Mousasi has better striking and of course he has a better ground game.
Sokoudjou could always blast him in the opening bell, but I can’t really see Mousasi falling in that manner, and will likely be patient in looking for openings and exploit Sokoudjou’s cardio, which will probably be worse considering he has fighting at openweight for his last two bouts.
Mousasi by TKO, Round 2. Mousasi is at 1.20 while Sokoudjou is at 4.00, so as sure as Mousasi is to win, I’d rather place something on the African.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers
(265 lbs/ 120 kg)
Brett Rogers

United States

+Extreme KO power, with all of his victories by way of KO, TKO, or submission (strikes)
+Size advantage, at 6′5″ and 265 lbs
+Mentally in good shape

-Brawler, with just hooks
-No proven ground game
-No proven wrestling background
-Uncertain cardio

Fedor Emelianenko

+World class upper body clinchwork—a three time World Combat Sambo champion as well as a national Judo champion
+Explosively powerful striking that sets up clinch well
+Transitions between striking and grappling are perfect
+Very good head movement
+Durable and can take punishment
+Excellent submission skills

-First fight in a cage
-Hasn’t really used Muay Thai since traing with Golden Glory in 2005


Does Rogers do any one thing better than Fedor? I can’t say so.
Rogers has bombs for fists but Fedor has no shortage in that regard either.

Furthermore, Fedor has defeated strikers like Semmy Schilt, Mirko Cro Cop, Mark Hunt, Andrei Arlovski and Gary Goodridge. Rogers has a win over Arlovski.

Truly, I wouldn’t view Rogers as anything other than a poor man’s version of 2006 Mark Hunt, who had a diamond jaw, an awesome punch and professional kickboxing skills, and a body type that made him difficult to take to the ground.

Fedor has to win on paper. Without a flash KO from a wild haymaker, Rogers’s chances are slim. Fedor by KO, Round 1. Fedor is at 1.17, while Rogers at 5.00. I’m trying Fedor and Shields.

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